Trump Tops Clinton in New Polling Average

Donald Trump is beating Hillary Clinton in the latest polling average according to The State’s official calculation. Unlike the RCP average, The State’s average eliminates polls taken significantly prior to the Republican National Convention. As expected, Trump is enjoying a substantial bump after a week of fiery convention speeches.

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Conventions often lead to poll bumps, but Trump’s acceptance speech in particular may have changed the course of this election. A CNN viewer poll taken shortly after Trump spoke showed a hugely positive audience response with 75% of all viewers giving favorable marks. Additionally, 73% of CNN viewers said Trump’s policies would lead the country in the right direction. Viewers clearly liked what Trump said despite overwhelmingly negative commentary from CNN contributors. This disconnect between commentators and viewers comes as no surprise – audiences have been rejecting bias in news as of late – both on the right and on the left.

CNN, NBC, CBS, MSNBC and CNBC have all suffered recently as more and more viewers reject their overwhelmingly biased commentary. Fox News isn’t immune either, as audiences earlier this year rejected Fox’s apparent dislike of Donald Trump – eventually forcing the network to embrace the candidate.

Pundits are suggesting the Democratic National Convention next week will reverse these poll results. However, our analysis shows Trump has made significant gains, and we expect Hillary’s convention will be unremarkable and particularly boring. While Trump has embraced the exciting, unpredictable and bold, Hillary has decidedly taken the reserved and pompous approach to her pandering rhetoric.

It is unlikely 2016 audiences will respond well to a convention run by a clearly corrupt DNC – brought to light by the timely Wikileaks email release. Perhaps Pablo will be there, providing us with something interesting to look at. With insiders and career politicians looking to spark some hint of excitement among the general population, the DNC will be lucky if Hillary gains back even one point against Trump.

Less intelligent observers will suggest polling doesn’t matter at all during conventions. That’s like saying pool temperature doesn’t matter when going for a swim. Enjoy your ice cold dip – maybe it’ll help you wake up to reality.

Monday, July 25th Update

Looks like the RCP average caught up to speed as their new figure matches The State’s average exactly with the latest polls added: